My friend Jade Vincent Membrebe recently mapped the current active cases of COVID 19 in Leyte (you can check his blog.
Inspired by his effort, I have combined important statistics (notable cases, facility capacity, the number of testing, etc. )
from ourworldindata.org and local database systems into this blog, hoping that we look at the current issue from a better and more factual perspective.
First, I would like to talk about how stringent the country’s response is based on 17 indicators that record information on
containment and closure policies, economic policies such as income support to citizens, and health system policies.
According to the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) which systematically collects information on these indicators,
the Philippines is actually one of few countries that implemented the strictest response (>90 index).
Based on nine of these indicators which include school closures, workplace closure, and travel bans,
the country recorded an index of 96.3 (100= the strictest response) together with countries like Mongolia, Nepal, Georgia, Kenya, Morocco, etc.(China recorded an index of 56.94). Note however that this index does not score the appropriateness or effectiveness of a country’s response.
Now let’s talk about the impact of these measures on the number of confirmed deaths and cases over time.
On the chart below you can check the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Philippines since the start of the pandemic.
You may want to recall that the first localized transmission was confirmed on March 7 which prompted DOH to raise the alert level to Code Red Sub-Level 1
and that the first partial lockdown was only implemented the 15th of March covering Metro Manila.
WITHOUT TESTING THERE IS NO DATA. And I think this is why it is important to remember that no country knows the total number of people infected with COVID-19.
All that we currently know is the infection status of those who have been tested, those who have a lab-confirmed infection, being counted as confirmed cases.
This is why we need to push for mass testing efforts to have data-informed policies to better tackle the development of the virus in the country.
In the chart below you can see the country’s scale of testing compared to the scale of the outbreak.
As of June 7, 2020, the country is only capable of 101 daily tests per million.
Now let’s look at data from a more local perspective. Better yet, let’s track coronavirus in Region 8 (the region where I live).
According to the COVID-19 Tracker by DOH Philippines, the region currently has 54 cases as of June 10, 2020 (34 of which are active and 20 have recovered)
majority of which were cases from returning residents as part of the national government’s Balik Probinsya program (BPP).
On the tracker, you can also check the testing capacity of laboratories and the daily sample tested per laboratory.
But, I think what we should be focusing now that the threat of the virus looms in the region and city, is the capacity of our facilities.
Let me draw your attention to Baybay, one of the first cities in Leyte Province that recorded confirmed cases after the BPP.
As of June 11, 2020 per official statement from the City LGU, the city now has 20 confirmed cases the highest in the region.
However, according to the Department of Health DataCollect app, there are only 5 (FIVE!) total dedicated beds for COVID-19 in the city of
Baybay with no ICU beds, no ward beds, and zero (0) mechanical ventilators as of June 9, 2020.
Now I do not know if this is an issue of reporting but why is the DOH COVID-19 tracker reflecting that these beds are still available and not occupied?
Where are these confirmed cases being isolated? Who then will be isolated in these facilities?
Clearly, we need more transparency and better management and dissemination of available data.
I think it is important to acknowledge and act on this now realising the risk COVID-19 poses to the general public,
and how the general public rely on these information to understand the level of risk around them and how the local government units
rely on it for better data-driven policy decisions.
Fortunately, 100 % of the facilities (3 out 3) have reported PPE availability which you can track below. But as to whether this is enough if we experience
an outbreak? Let me leave you with that question. You can check the situation and capacity of your region and city to respond against COVID-19 using the DOH tracker
I think this blog went longer than I planned, so I will end this here. But if you have questions or suggestions as to what data you’d want to see,
please feel free to comment below so I can try to look for it somewhere and compile it here too. I want to end this blog by saying that we need to look at
the situation based on facts for data-informed awareness. In the words of my favourite academic, physician, public speaker and author Dr. Hans Rosling
“The world cannot be understood without numbers. But the world cannot be understood with numbers alone”.